Kathmandu — El Niño is intensifying as sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean continue to rise abnormally. According to the latest analysis released by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on September 10, there is more than a 90 percent chance of a very strong El Niño developing during the autumn and winter of 2026 in the Northern Hemisphere.

According to NOAA, sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific have risen more than 3 degrees Celsius above average. Temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region have also increased to 1.8 degrees Celsius. Forecasts indicate that El Niño is likely to strengthen further toward the end of the year.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), in its latest El Niño–La Niña update released on September 3, said El Niño could intensify further in the coming months and reach a very strong level. The WMO estimates that there is nearly a 100 percent chance that El Niño will persist through February 2027.

Impact on Global Weather
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon associated with unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. It can alter interactions between the ocean and atmosphere, affecting normal patterns of temperature and rainfall in different parts of the world.
According to the WMO, a very strong El Niño can alter rainfall patterns and increase the risk of floods, droughts and extreme heat in different regions. However, its effects are not the same everywhere. While some regions may experience increased rainfall, others may face a higher risk of drought.
The WMO has also emphasized that the effects of El Niño should be assessed alongside other climate systems. Other climate drivers, including conditions in the Indian Ocean, can influence regional weather patterns.

Concerns Over Rainfall in South Asia
Because El Niño can influence the South Asian monsoon, concerns have increased over its potential implications for agriculture, water resources, energy and disaster management across the region.
According to the WMO’s April 2026 seasonal outlook for South Asia, large parts of the region were expected to receive below-average rainfall during the southwest monsoon season from June to September 2026. National meteorological and hydrological services from nine South Asian countries, including Nepal, participated in the preparation of the outlook.
Monsoon rainfall is crucial to agriculture, drinking water supplies, rivers, groundwater and hydropower across South Asia. Any significant change in monsoon patterns could therefore have implications for regional food security and water-resource management.

What Could Be the Impact on Nepal?
The impact of El Niño on Nepal cannot be understood as direct or uniform. In addition to El Niño, rainfall and temperature patterns in Nepal are influenced by conditions in the Indian Ocean, the monsoon system, western disturbances and other oceanic and atmospheric processes.
A study published in 2026 based on long-term rainfall data from Nepal found that monsoon rainfall during El Niño years was about 9 percent lower than the long-term average. However, the study did not conclude that all El Niño years produce the same rainfall pattern, noting that conditions can vary by region and season.
Therefore, the strengthening of El Niño alone does not mean that Nepal will necessarily experience reduced rainfall or drought in the coming months. Assessments of weather-related risks in Nepal need to consider local and regional seasonal forecasts as well as other climate factors.

Potential Impacts on Agriculture, Hydropower and Water Resources
Nepal’s economy and daily life are highly dependent on the monsoon, meaning changes in rainfall patterns could affect the agricultural sector. Reduced rainfall could put additional pressure on irrigation systems and soil moisture, while water resources and hydropower generation could also be affected.
At the same time, an overall reduction in rainfall does not necessarily eliminate the possibility of intense rainfall occurring over a short period. Therefore, El Niño should not be viewed only in terms of drought. Changes in the timing, distribution and intensity of rainfall, as well as the potential for extreme weather events, also need to be considered.

Emphasis on Preparedness
With international forecasts indicating that El Niño could strengthen further in the coming months, Nepal needs to prioritize regular monitoring and preparedness for seasonal and climate-related risks.
Strengthening the delivery of weather and climate forecasts to local communities, aligning agricultural planning with seasonal forecasts, promoting water conservation and improving water-resource management are among the key areas requiring attention. Strengthening early warning systems for floods, landslides and other disasters is equally important.
Nepal’s Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has also issued its national seasonal forecast for the 2026 monsoon season. As El Niño conditions may continue to evolve in the coming months, Nepal’s national seasonal forecasts should be regularly updated alongside international climate outlooks.
With global temperatures already rising as a result of climate change, the development of a strong El Niño could further complicate seasonal weather risks in different parts of the world. Continued monitoring of the phenomenon and careful assessment of its potential impacts will therefore remain important.